Informe Mensual Económico Financiero N° 339 – Mayo de 2018
At the end of April 2018 and in relation to December, Argentina devalued its
currency more against the dollar (10.2%) in nominal terms than the rest of the
large South American countries (Brazil 4.2%). The bilateral real exchange rate
of Argentina ars/dollar at the end of April 2018 versus that observed at the end
of 2017 was devalued 7% according the Central bank; it has devalued against
Chile (7%), Brazil (2%), China (10%) and the European Union (6%).
The tariff adjustment continues to feed inflation and at the same time causes a
very important change in the structure of household spending. As these are
essential services, families maintain consumption and sacrifice other goods and
services, whose demand is reduced. The counterpart is the reduction of
subsidies, indispensable to improve the fiscal equation.
In this sense, the Central Bank of Argentina sold in April 4.7 billion dollars in a
context of deterioration of expectations (inflation, tariffs, political tensions) to which
the change in the tax regime affecting the holders of Lebac (Central bank Notes)
non-residents, was added. The stock of Lebac in the hands of non-financial private
sector begin to decline at the end of April, also Leliq (liquidity Central bank Notes).
In any case, the stock of Lebac + Passes represents 120% of the Monetary Base
(60% two years ago). Lebac auction in May 15 will be crucial because the maturity
of the 50%.
Argentine exports of 2017 (58,428 million dollars) exhibit the following structure by
zones and countries. The Mercosur, European Union and NAFTA occupy the first
positions, reaching 27,127 million, with a concentration of 46.4% of the total. From
the point of view of the major items, manufactures of agricultural origin participated
with 38.5% of the total, which together with Primary Products completed 63.9%.
El IAEF agradece la colaboración de la Sra. Marta Álvarez – Executive English en la traducción de
esta Síntesis Ejecutiva.