Informe Mensual Económico Financiero N° 338 – Abril de 2018
In the first quarter of the year, the cumulative inflation rate was around 6.5% and in
the first semester it would reach 10.5%, almost 70% of the annual target, driven by
the increase in public services prices and by the sliding of the exchange rate to
about ARS 20.50 by dollar.
While this allowed for a moderate improvement in the real exchange rate, the
Central Bank began to intervene in the exchange market since March 5, to mitigate
exchange pressures and curb the
to prices, particularly notable in the
increase of wholesale prices in February. March sales amounted 2,040 million
This shift in monetary policy seeks to facilitate the end of wage negotiations still
pending and avoid the risk of anticipating the discussion of compensations due to
the resilience in inflation rate, which most agreements foresee in the event that
inflation does not subside. The reduction of the interest rate will be moderate.
The amount of transactional money (coins and notes in public hands, demand
deposits and saving accounts) available in the economy is unusually high and has
been growing above nominal GDP, accompanying the monetary expansion of fiscal
origin. One explanation is that more people, for example the beneficiaries of social
plans and pensions are becoming users of banks services.
The Current Account deficit in 2017, 30.8 billion dollars, duplicated the one of 2016.
A first estimate of the first quarter of 2018 suggests that the deficit of the period
would reach 11.0 billion against 7.2 billion from the same period of 2017. These
figures confirm the hypothesis that the deficit of the Current Account will reach 5%
of GDP in 2018.
In 2017, GDP grew 2.9% compared to 2016, driven by investment (11.3%). From
the supply approach, Gross Domestic Added Value increased by 2.6 with respect to
2016. In the Goods producing sector, Construction stood out with 10.4%, while the
Manufacturing industry grew 2.8%. In Services, the largest advance corresponded
to financial intermediation (5.1%). By 2018, GDP, growth is estimated at 2.8%,
taking into account the negative effect of the drought on the farm sector.
El IAEF agradece la colaboración de la Sra. Marta Álvarez – Executive English en la traducción de
esta Síntesis Ejecutiva.