Informe Mensual Económico Financiero N° 337 – Marzo de 2018
To the extent that external financing becomes more scarce, the most likely scenario
is that of a more depreciated exchange rate and an inflation rate higher than that set
by the Ministry of Finance and even by the one foreseen by the consensus of the
analysts. This scenario requires a change in relative prices that slows down the
growth of domestic spending and promotes exports, and would imply a moderate
deceleration of GDP growth (partly due to the effect of the drought and partly to the
need to reorient spending).
Economic agents have registered this crossroads of the economy, which also
coincides with wage negotiations, and this would be one of the factors that explains
the discrimination of the Argentine debt bonds, whose referred risk premium has not
yet returned to the December levels.
The advances that can be achieved in relation to cost reduction, deregulation and the
release of obstacles to competitiveness (on what there are initiatives in Parliament)
can help offset the effects of a hardening of the international scenario, increasing the
flexibility of the economy to absorb external shocks. In the same sense, infrastructure
and energy projects that can generate foreign direct investment income in specific
When comparing the National CPI of December 2017 versus the same period of 2016
the result is 24.8%, but if it is disaggregated into Goods and Services the percentages
are 20.1% and 34.2%, respectively. And, when they are classified in Seasonal, Core
and Regulated CPI, 21.46%, 21.13% and 38.70% are obtained in each case. In
wholesale prices, the general Level was 18.8%, but the item Electric power rose
88.4%. On the other hand, the Salaries index grew 27.3% surpassing CIP. The
pressure of the process of updating tariffs on price indexes is thus evident.
El IAEF agradece la colaboración de la Sra. Marta Álvarez – Executive English en la traducción de
esta Síntesis Ejecutiva.