Informe Mensual Económico Financiero N° 336 – Febrero de 2018
goods with greater elasticity are affected in their sales volume, without intervention
the interest rate.
This is the framework of wage bargaining. The real wage for February 2018 will
probably be higher than twelve months ago, but that does not imply the absence of
tensions. The decision to avoid the trigger clause contributes to reduce inflationary
inertia. But the results of the negotiations will be relevant for the course of the
inflation rate. The floor of the wage increases will be around 15% and the ceiling el
The fiscal closure of 2017 showed a financial deficit of 6.9% of GDP, beyond the
fact that the primary deficit (3.9%) implied exceeding the official target (4.2%). The
interest burden is felt increasingly and is a vulnerability to the rise in the yield of
Treasury bonds of US in progress. It helped to meet the goal, that in December the
primary spending grew only 5.9% year-on-year (spending on subsidies fell 26.6%,
transfers to the provinces 13.6% and capital expenditure 24.8%).
The evolution of deposits in 2017 was consistent with the inflation rate. Three
important factors are: i) the high growth of the circulating holdings in the public, well
above the inflation rate (in 2018 it will hardly happen again); ii) the low growth of
fixed-term deposits (cannibalized by the Lebac); iii) the growth of credit to the public
sector, that doubled that of system deposits.
The commercial balance for 2017 (exports minus imports) registered an important
deficit of -8,471 million dollars, compared to +1,969 million in 2016. This is due to
the fact that exports increased annually at almost 0.9% and imports did so at 19.7%.
The crucial point is that imports accelerate as the level of activity grows. Therefore,
more and more financing of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments is
The regional disaggregation of the aforementioned trade deficit shows two countries
at the front: Brazil and China, with -8,672 million dollars and -7,736 million, followed
by the NAFTA and the EU (-3,877 million and 2,819 million, each). In these cases
Capital Goods, Intermediate Goods and Spare Parts and accessories for Capital
El IAEF agradece la colaboración de la Sra. Marta Álvarez – Executive English en la traducción de
esta Síntesis Ejecutiva.