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Informe Mensual Económico Financiero N° 335 – Enero de 2018

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7

Argentina faces an important difficulty: it transits the inicial stretches of an

expansive stage of its economic cycle at low speed, which aggravates the

structural fiscal dragging difficulties. Simultaneously, it

already presents an external

deficit of a magnitude that would correspond to a later stage of the cycle, which makes it

very depending of external financing. It is necessary to make the rhythm of low public

spending with the increase in private spending to prevent external deterioration from

worsening. And this finds a limit in the social resistance to the decline of public spending.

COMMAND BOARD

Units of

measurement

2016

real

2017

estim.

2018

projec.

1. World growth*

Year-on-year change %

3,2

3,6

3,8

2. GDP at constant prices Base 2004

Year-on-year change %

-2,2

2,8

3,0

3. Payment Balance, Current Account

In % of GDP

-2,7

-5,0

-5,4

4. Real peso/dollar (at the end of December)

December 2001 = 1,00

1,06

1,03

1,03

5. Nominal Exchange rate (at the end of Dec.)

Pesos per dollar

15,8

18,9

22,0

6. CPI City of Buenos Aires

December/December

40,8

24,0

18,0

7. Lebac rate 30 days to December **

% annual

24,8

28,8

21,8

8. Overall fiscal balance

In % of GDP

-6,52

-6,33

-6,05

9. Monetary Basis

Year-on-year change %

26,7

25,0

20,0

(*) According to Parity of purchasing power

(**) Notes of the Central Bank

FUENTE: National Institute of statistics and Census, Central Bank of Argentina and own projection.

El IAEF agradece la colaboración de la Sra. Marta Álvarez – Executive English en la traducción de

esta Síntesis Ejecutiva.